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3 cards from this section. Quick, good the night before a test.
Define sample space.
Think of what you would observe.
What does conditional probability measure?
It involves two events.
What is Bayes' Theorem used for?
Think about updating beliefs.
True or False: The prior probability changes when new evidence is introduced.
What does 'prior' mean?
A factory produces 5% defective items. An inspection process has an 80% success rate in detecting defects. If an item is inspected and found defective, what is the probability that it is actually defective?
Work through joint probabilities and apply Bayes' Theorem carefully.
In clinical trials, a new drug shows efficacy in 70% of patients. There is a 10% chance of side effects. If side effects occur, what's the updated probability that the patient benefited from the drug?
Set up your known probabilities and use Bayes' formula.
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